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	<title>Comments on: Uh Oh. Guess What&#8217;s Really Behind the Financial Crunch?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/</link>
	<description>Plausibly Undeniable</description>
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		<title>By: QDC</title>
		<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/comment-page-1/#comment-73</link>
		<dc:creator>QDC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 01:56:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.treygarrison.com/?p=277#comment-73</guid>
		<description>This is really sloppy thinking.  What evidence is there that these loans actually had bad outcomes?  What evidence is there that, prior to this program, we had attained an equilibrium with an appropriate level of mortgage risk?  

It’s silly to pretend that Fannie and Freddie somehow invented the notion of lending to borrowers with less-than perfect credit. Subprime lending was an innovation of the private market enabled by securitization. By 1999, the subprime market was already growing rapidly among private lenders outside the confines of the GSEs. And the thing is, it was a good innovation. Lending standards historically were far too tight, and mortgage securitization freed up capital to make loans that approached a more optimal level of risk. Of course, when a bubble formed, we at some point crossed that optimal level.

Even if you think that the government was encouraging banks to make too many bad loans, certainly no one was forcing banks to make leveraged bets on the riskiest tranches of CDOs. Those bets, which are the proximate cause of the crisis, were simply plain old bad investments. It happens.

Look, there’s plenty of blame to go around, and government subsidization of the housing market (mostly through the mortgage interest deduction) certainly worsened the housing bubble, which led to the mortgage-backed security bubble. But to just point at some particular government program (a pilot program!) which started ten years after subprime lending started its ascendancy, and say “Aha!” is simply not a persuasive argument. Every side of the debate needs to try to see around their own cognitive biases (Regulation cased the crisis! Regulation would have prevented the crisis!) and understand that a crisis like this is caused by the interaction of many forces, some private, some governmental, and some systematic.qd</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is really sloppy thinking.  What evidence is there that these loans actually had bad outcomes?  What evidence is there that, prior to this program, we had attained an equilibrium with an appropriate level of mortgage risk?  </p>
<p>It’s silly to pretend that Fannie and Freddie somehow invented the notion of lending to borrowers with less-than perfect credit. Subprime lending was an innovation of the private market enabled by securitization. By 1999, the subprime market was already growing rapidly among private lenders outside the confines of the GSEs. And the thing is, it was a good innovation. Lending standards historically were far too tight, and mortgage securitization freed up capital to make loans that approached a more optimal level of risk. Of course, when a bubble formed, we at some point crossed that optimal level.</p>
<p>Even if you think that the government was encouraging banks to make too many bad loans, certainly no one was forcing banks to make leveraged bets on the riskiest tranches of CDOs. Those bets, which are the proximate cause of the crisis, were simply plain old bad investments. It happens.</p>
<p>Look, there’s plenty of blame to go around, and government subsidization of the housing market (mostly through the mortgage interest deduction) certainly worsened the housing bubble, which led to the mortgage-backed security bubble. But to just point at some particular government program (a pilot program!) which started ten years after subprime lending started its ascendancy, and say “Aha!” is simply not a persuasive argument. Every side of the debate needs to try to see around their own cognitive biases (Regulation cased the crisis! Regulation would have prevented the crisis!) and understand that a crisis like this is caused by the interaction of many forces, some private, some governmental, and some systematic.qd</p>
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		<title>By: The Agitator &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time</title>
		<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/comment-page-1/#comment-71</link>
		<dc:creator>The Agitator &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 00:44:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.treygarrison.com/?p=277#comment-71</guid>
		<description>[...] Journalist Trey Garrison wades ten years into the New York Times archives and finds warnings of what was to come: In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Journalist Trey Garrison wades ten years into the New York Times archives and finds warnings of what was to come: In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: DR</title>
		<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/comment-page-1/#comment-69</link>
		<dc:creator>DR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Sep 2008 21:07:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.treygarrison.com/?p=277#comment-69</guid>
		<description>EXCELLENT.   I found this website throught Reasons Hit and Run blog. I sent the article to everybody I know.  I am checking this website everday.  From the New York Times!  Brilliant!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>EXCELLENT.   I found this website throught Reasons Hit and Run blog. I sent the article to everybody I know.  I am checking this website everday.  From the New York Times!  Brilliant!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/comment-page-1/#comment-66</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:25:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.treygarrison.com/?p=277#comment-66</guid>
		<description>Good work,  Trey. I knew the GOP had nothing to do with it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good work,  Trey. I knew the GOP had nothing to do with it.</p>
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		<title>By: Frank</title>
		<link>http://www.treygarrison.com/2008/09/uh-oh-guess-whats-really-behind-the-financial-crunch/comment-page-1/#comment-62</link>
		<dc:creator>Frank</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:04:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.treygarrison.com/?p=277#comment-62</guid>
		<description>It is so sad that the truth and intricacies of the current fiscal crisis will get swept up under the rug and piled under further regulations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is so sad that the truth and intricacies of the current fiscal crisis will get swept up under the rug and piled under further regulations.</p>
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